摘要
在考虑居民人均收入、消费需求结构、城镇化率、营养目标以及科技进步等诸多因素对饲料用粮相互反馈的基础上,基于系统动力学方法建立中国饲料用粮消费需求的预测模型,从系统的角度对未来中国饲料用粮消费需求的动态发展行为做出预测及趋势判断.预测结果表明,我国未来饲料用粮需求增幅较快,由2011年的11 307.1万t增长到2020年的15 310.7万t,年均增长率约为3.46%.这表明,随着科技进步、居民收入水平提高以及畜产品需求的增长,饲料用粮将成为影响中国未来粮食消费需求的重要因素.
Based on the system dynamics approach, a forecasting model for China＇s feed grain demand is developed, which takes residents＇ per capita income, consumption structure, urbanization rate, nutrition goals, and scientific-technical progress as a holistic system. A more objective and accurate forecasting for the trends of China＇s feed grain demand is presented. The prediction results indicate that the amount of overall feed grain demand in China has increased rapidly from 113.07 million tons in 2011 up to 153.10 million tons in 2020,with an average annual growth rate （AAGR） of 3.46%. Therefore, with the scientific-technical progress, growing per capita income, increasing demand of animal products, and feed grain consumption have become the major components of China＇s total grain demand.
出处
《河南科学》
2012年第1期127-130,共4页
Henan Science
基金
河南省软科学基金项目(092400440039)
河南省杰出青年基金(094100510013)
关键词
饲料用粮
系统动力学
预测模型
feed grain demand
system dynamics
forecasting model
