摘要
随着国际社会对气候变化问题的重视,中国在"十二五"期间进一步提出了节能减排的新目标,需要研究碳排放价格对电网规划的影响作用。分析碳排放价格的波动情况,利用指数广义自回归条件异方差(exponential generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity,EGARCH)模型建立碳排放价格预测模型,提出碳排放量的计算方法;在此基础上构建基于动态碳排放价格的电网规划模型;最后,通过IEEE 24节点系统的模拟测算,分析模型的有效性。结果表明,与不考虑碳排放价格或者只考虑固定碳排放价格的电网规划相比,在规划模型中引入动态碳排放价格变量,能够更有效地模拟各种波动价格情景下的最优线路扩建方案,符合未来电网规划适应节能减排的工作需要,所确定的规划方案具有更好的经济效益。
As the growing attention being paid to climate change issues world wide,and the new emission reduction target proposed in China for the ＂twelfth five-year＂ period,the research about carbon emission price influence on transmission network planning is of vital importance.The fluctuations of carbon emission price were analyzed firstly.Exponential generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity,（EGARCH） model was used to forecast the carbon emission price and a calculation method of carbon emission was established.Then,transmission planning model based on dynamic carbon emission price was displayed.Finally,the validity of the model was tested by IEEE 24-bus system.The results show that the consideration of dynamic carbon emission price in planning model makes the optimal transmission line expansion simulation more effective in various scenarios of price fluctuations.It also meets the need of energy conservation work for future transmission planning.And the planning result it made possesses more economic benefits.
出处
《中国电机工程学报》
EI
CSCD
北大核心
2012年第4期57-64,18,共8页
Proceedings of the CSEE
基金
国家自然科学基金项目(70671041
70771039)
美国能源基金会项目(G-1006-12630)
国家电网公司科技项目(KJ-2010-30)~~
关键词
碳排放价格
动态价格预测
指数广义自回归条件异方差模型
电网规划
欧洲碳排放交易体系
carbon emission price
dynamic price forecast
exponential generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity（EGARCH） model
transmission network planning
European carbon emission trading system
