摘要
农业机械总动力是反映和评价农业机械化水平的一个重要指标,精准的预测农业机械总动力具有非常重要的意义。本文根据青岛地区1990~2008年的农用机械总动力历史数据的变化形态,找到合适的方程提取确定性趋势,并运用自回归移动平均模型ARMA（p,q）及其建模思路,结合Eviews软件构建了ARMA（1,1）模型。经检验此模型预测精度较高,拟合效果理想,进一步说明了方程法和ARMA组合模型用于对农业机械总动力预测的可行性,可以为相关部门和单位的预测工作提供一定借鉴。
Agricultural machinery total power is an important index that reflects and evaluates the level of agricultural mechanization.The precise agricultural machinery total power forcasting is very important.This paper briefly introduces the principles and methods of ARMA（Auto Regression Moving Average Model）.In the real life analysis,based on morphological changes of the data of Qingdao from 1990 to 2008,the author found a proper equation to extract deterministic trend and established ARMA（1,1） model with eviews.Upon examination it is further proved that the composition model of equation method and ARMA has high prediction accuracy and provides ideal forecast effect,it can be used to analyze and forecast agricultural machinery total power.This can provide the relevant departments with some reference.
出处
《中国农机化》
北大核心
2012年第1期53-56,共4页
Chinese Agricul Tural Mechanization
基金
人力资源和社会保障部科技项目(项目编号:LB2007-03)
