摘要
为了给中国天然气发展策略的制定提供参考和依据,系统研究了2008年全球金融危机暴发以来,世界天然气市场经历的前所未有的大衰退和其后强劲的复苏过程,全面、深入分析了全球天然气市场变化的趋势、原因及其造成的影响,基于全球天然气长期向好的发展总趋势未改但增长速度也受到了地缘政治和经济形势变化影响的判断,对中国天然气市场发展前景进行了预测。结论认为:得益于以下因素的推动,中国正迎来一波"天然气浪潮":①国家政策要求,市场需求旺盛;②天然气资源探明程度较低,储量和产量增长潜力大;③天然气进口能力快速增长;④天然气基础设施不断完善,供应保障程度提高。最后,对如何推动中国天然气市场发展提出了4条建议:①坚持以国内资源为主、国外资源为辅的天然气供应策略;②建立天然气储备体系,稳定天然气供应;③继续深化天然气价格及其形成机制改革;④开展天然气现货交易试点,规划建立天然气市场中心(交易点)。
This paper aims to provide reference and basis for the decision making of natural gas development in China.First,it reviews the history of the global natural gas market from the unprecedented recession to strong recovery since the financial crisis in 2008.Then,a deep investigation is made into the developing trend of global gas market as well as its causes and consequences.Finally,based on the fact that the developing trend of global gas market is always positive but its increasing rate is affected by geopolitics and geo-economy,the forecast is made of the prospect of natural gas market in China.It is pointed out that the 'Natural Gas Wave' will be coming soon for many reasons such as the requirement of national policies,the rising demand in the market,a rather low degree of the improved gas reserves,a high potential of high reserves and production,rapidly increasing import of natural gas,the improvement of infrastructures,and a robust support for gas supply.Moreover,this paper also presents four proposals for the development of natural gas market in China.(1) National gas supply should be dominated by domestic gas resources and supported by foreign ones;(2) Natural gas supply should be kept under control with a gas reserve system;(3) The reform on natural gas pricing system should be further deepened;(4) More spot transaction trials should be made in the gas market and natural gas trading centers/hubs should be planned and constructed.
出处
《天然气工业》
EI
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2012年第2期5-10,111,共6页
Natural Gas Industry
