摘要
利用GVAR模型方法,通过投入产出表数据构造加权矩阵,将各产业联系在一起,形成一个反映产业间相互依赖的经济系统模型。实证分析中,采用广义脉冲响应函数,对1985-2007年期间我国17个部门的实际产出增长率和固定资产投资增长率之间的相互动态影响进行了考察。实证结果表明:不同产业的调整对宏观经济波动的影响不同;同一产业采取不同的产业结构调整方式,对经济波动的影响不同。其中,农业适合通过更新改造调整产业结构;能源相关产业适合通过更新改造调整产业结构,传统制造产业适合通过引进新技术调整产业结构。根据17个产业对产出冲击脉冲响应的结果,可以划分三类产业:稳定的产业、比较稳定的产业和易波动的产业。易波动的产业对新技术的扩散或吸纳作用大。
Using a weighted matrix from input-output tables,this paper models an economic system which reflects the interdependence of all the sectors.This GVAR model is estimated for 17 Chinese sectors in the 1985-2008 sample periods.It indicates that the restructuring in different industries has different shocks on macroeconomic fluctuations,even in the same industry,the aggregate output responses differently to different restructuring approaches.Updates and transformation are suitable for industrial restructuring of the agriculture and the energy-related industries.Introduction of new technologies is suitable for industrial restructuring of the traditional manufacturing industries.According to the impulse responses of 17 sectors to the output shocks,we can divide them into three groups： stable group,less stable group and fluctuant group.The fluctuant group plays an important role in the technology diffusing or absorbing.
出处
《技术经济与管理研究》
2012年第2期22-26,共5页
Journal of Technical Economics & Management
关键词
产业调整
GVAR
投入产出
产业关联
Industrial restructuring
GVAR
Input-output
Sectroral linkages
