摘要
建立了基于时间序列分析方法的建筑能耗预测模型,对上海某办公建筑逐月能耗进行预测。采用CensusX12方法进行季节调整,建立ARMA时序模型,并对季节因子进行温度化处理。模拟结果表明,采用时间序列分析的方法来预测建筑能耗是一种有效方法。
Based on time series analysis method,it establishes a forecast model of building energy consumption to forecast the monthly energy consumption of an office building in Shanghai.CensusX12 method is used to do seasonal adjustment,ARMA model is established and the seasonal factor is processed with accumulated temperature.The forecast results show that time series analysis method is applicable for building energy consumption forecast.
出处
《建筑节能》
CAS
2012年第2期55-59,62,共6页
BUILDING ENERGY EFFICIENCY
关键词
时间序列
建筑能耗预测
ARMA模型
time series
building energy consumption forecast
ARMA Model
