国际能源价格波动对中国边际减排成本的影响:基于CEEPA模型的分析被引量：13

The Impacts of International Energy Price Volatility on China's Marginal Abatement Cost:A CEEPA-based Analysis

下载PDF

导出

摘要减排成本是影响温室气体减排活动的一个关键因素。考虑到能源价格是影响减排成本的最主要的因素之一,本研究将中国的能源定价机制引入到所构建的中国能源与环境政策分析模型(CEEPA);运用改进的CEE-PA模型模拟中国不同能源定价机制情景下的边际减排成本;对国际能源价格波动对中国边际减排成本的影响进行了分析。结果表明,我国的边际减排成本对电力和成品油的定价方式是比较敏感的,放开这两种能源的定价特别是电价机制的市场化改革能推动我国边际减排成本的有效降低。不同能源的国际价格对我国边际减排成本的影响呈现很大的不同,国际能源价格上涨和下降对我国边际减排成本的影响具有对称性。 Cost is a critical factor affecting greenhouse gas abatement activities. Recognizing that energy prices are one of the most important factors influencing abatement costs, this study improved the basic CEEPA model （a CGE model for China＇s energy and environmental policy analysis） by introducing a description of the current energy pricing mechanism in China. This improved model was applied to generate marginal abatement cost （MAC） curves for China under different energy pricing mechanisms to simulate the impacts of international energy price volatility under different mechanisms, and to analyze MACs for the main abatement sectors in China. The results show that MACs in China are sensitive to pri- cing mechanisms for electricity and refined oil,and price liberalization could lead to a decrease in MACs in China. The impacts of international prices volatility of different energy on MACs for China are very different, and the impacts of ris- ing and declining international energy price are the symmetrical.

作者姚云飞梁巧梅魏一鸣

机构地区中国科学技术大学管理学院北京理工大学能源与环境政策研究中心北京理工大学管理与经济学院

出处《中国软科学》 CSSCI 北大核心 2012年第2期156-165,共10页 China Soft Science

基金国家自然科学基金项目(71020107026 70733005 71001007)

关键词温室气体减排国际能源价格波动成本中国政策分析模型定价机制市场化改革 Marginal Abatement Cost energy pricing international energy price volatility, computable general equilibri-um climate change

分类号 F206 [经济管理—国民经济]

引文网络
相关文献

参考文献15

1Klepper G, Peterson S. Marginal Abatement Cost Curves in General Equilibrium: The Influence of World Energy Prices [ J]. Resource and Energy Economics,2006,28 ( 1 ) : 1 - 23.
2Kesicki F, Strachan N. Marginal Abatement Cost (MAC) Curves: Confronting Theory and Practice [ J ]. Environmental Science & Policy,2011,14 : 1195 - 1204.
3Morris J, Paltsev S, Re.illy J. Marginal Abatement Costs and Marginal Welfare Costs for Greenhouse Gas Emissions Re- ductions : Results from the EPPA Model [ R ]. MIT Joint Pro- gram on the Science and Policy of Global Change Report 164,2008.
4Baker E, Clarke L, Shittu E. Technical Change and the Marginal Cost of Abatement [ J]. Energy Economics,2008,30 (6) : 2799 -2816.
5Chen W Y. The Costs of Mitigating Carbon Emissions in China: Findings from China MARKAL - MACRO Modeling [ J]. Energy Policy,2005,33 (7) : 885 - 896.
6Wang Q Y, Cui Q J, Zhou D Q. Marginal Abatement Costs of Carbon Dioxide in China: A Nonparametric Analysis [ J ]. Energy Procedia,2011,5 : 2316 - 2320.
7陈诗一.边际减排成本与中国环境税改革[J].中国社会科学,2011(3):85-100. 被引量：134
8陈文颖,吴宗鑫,王伟中.CO_2收集封存战略及其对我国远期减缓CO_2排放的潜在作用[J].环境科学,2007,28(6):1178-1182. 被引量：44
9Wang K, Wang C, Chen J N. Analysis of the Economic Impact of Different Chinese Climate Policy Options Based on a CGE Model Incorporating Endogenous Technological Change [ J]. Energy Policy,2009,37 ( 8 ) : 2930 - 2940.
10Criqui P, Mima S, Viguier L. Marginal Abatement Costs of CO2 Emission Reductions, Geographical Flexibility and Con- crete Ceilings: An Assessment Using the POLES Model [ J ]. Energy Policy, 1999,27 (10) : 585 - 601.