摘要
The Gutenberg-Richter and Omori Laws, which are generally used to characterize the temporal distribution of aftershock, failed to reflect the statistic properties of climatic outbreak of aftershock energy. Based on a new concept of magnitude clusters describing the fluctuation of aftershock energy release of the Wenchuan Earthquake, we discovered that the pattern of the continuous high-magnitude aftershock follows a power-law rather than a non-Poisson distribution. This suggests that the after-shocks with high magnitudes are statistically clustered. We then divided the aftershock sequences into three sections and demonstrated that though the probability of strong outbreaks decreased with time, there exists a high possibility of the occurrence of isolated high-magnitude aftershocks in the future. Based on self-organized criticality theory, the mechanisms of the power-law pattern of magnitude clusters are discussed. This discovery may be used to guide future aftershock predication and the associated post-disaster reconstruction.
The Gutenberg-Richter and Omori Laws, which are generally used to characterize the temporal distribution of aftershock, failed to reflect the statistic properties of climatic outbreak of aftershock energy. Based on a new concept of magnitude clusters describing the fluctuation of aftershock energy release of the Wenchuan Earthquake, we discovered that the pattern of the continuous high-magnitude aftershock follows a power-law rather than a non-Poisson distribution. This suggests that the aftershocks with high magnitudes are statistically clustered. We then divided the aftershock sequences into three sections and demonstrated that though the probability of strong outbreaks decreased with time, there exists a high possibility of the occurrence of isolated high-magnitude aftershocks in the future. Based on self-organized criticality theory, the mechanisms of the power-law pattern of magnitude clusters are discussed. This discovery may be used to guide future aftershock predication and the associated post-disaster reconstruction.
基金
supported by State Key Program of National Natural Science of China (Grant No. 41030742)
Key Laboratory of Ecotourism’s Application Technology of Hunan Province (Grant No. 10STLVZD03)
