摘要
运用数理统计理论的互相关分析方法,对黄河内蒙古段冰情信息时间序列进行分析,筛选出了冰情信息的预报因子,建立了冰情预报的自适应BP神经网络模型。预报结果表明:流凌日期为乙等预报方案,封河日期为甲等预报方案,开河日期为丙等预报方案。
The time series of the ice-conditions information in Inner Mongolia Reach of the Yellow River were analyzed by the cross-correlation method in mathematical statistics, so the predicted factors were shifted out to build the adaptive neural network predicting model. The results show that the predicted effects of flowing-ice date, frozen date and breakup date are better, best and qualified.
出处
《人民黄河》
北大核心
2012年第2期39-41,共3页
Yellow River
基金
内蒙古水利厅科技计划项目(201007)
水利部公益性行业科研专项(200801034)
内蒙古自然科学基金资助项目(2010MS0618)
关键词
自适应神经网络
冰情预报
内蒙古河段
黄河
adaptive neural network
ice-conditions prediction
Inner Mongolia Reach
Yellow River
