摘要
根据1978～2009年的广东省年度数据,选取代表区域物流发展水平的3个重要指标,对广东省经济增长与物流业发展之间的关系进行研究。建立VAR模型,运用脉冲响应模型分析经济增长与物流发展间的联动效应,并运用协整理论和Granger因果检验分析经济增长与物流业的长期关系和因果关系。结果表明,广东省物流业与经济增长之间保持着长期协整关系,长期来看,物流业的发展会促进经济增长。广东省经济增长带动了物流业的快速发展,但是,由于物流业仍然处于发展的初期阶段,对经济增长的促进作用还不是很显著。对广东省发展物流业提出了几点建议。
The relationship between the regional logistics and regional economic growth in Guangdong Province is analyzed based on the annual data from 1978 to 2009. Three indices that have significant effect on the regional logistics development are chosen in the analysis. After the VAR （vector autoregression） model is developed for the problem, impulse response function is applied to analyze the interactive relationship between economic growth and logistics development. Then, co-integration and Granger causality tests are conducted to analyze the long-term relationship and the causal relationship between them. Results show that there is a long-term co-integration relationship between them. In the long run, the logistics industry promotes the economic growth. However, while the economic growth has boosting effect on the regional logistics, the regional logistics has no significant effect on the regional economic growth. The reason is that the logistics industry here is still in the early stage. Finally, suggestions on logistics industry development in Guangdong Province are given.
出处
《工业工程》
北大核心
2012年第1期60-65,共6页
Industrial Engineering Journal
基金
广东省自然科学基金资助项目(81510641010000010)
广东省软科学基金资助项目(2010A070103001)
关键词
物流
经济增长
向量自回归模型
协整
logistics
economic growth
vector autoregression model
co-integration
