摘要
提出了一种基于灰色系统GGM(1,1)模型的电力系统静态频率特性系数的快速识别与预测计算方法。该方法在分析对比常规静态频率特性系数定义公式、识别计算方法及灰色系统理论基础上,提出了适用于电力系统静态频率特性系数预测的灰色模型构建方法,在同一运行方式下施加递增扰动计算系统频率偏差最大值并计算系统静态频率特性系数的等测度数据序列,替代时间序列建立静态频率特性系数的灰色GM(1,1)模型,预测计算系统静态频率特性系数变化趋势并进行分析。应用灰色系统中的GGM(1,1)模型对特高压电网某年度运行方式下的系统K值进行了预测计算,同时在仿真算例中进行了验证并分析了计算误差。
This paper presents a fast identification and prediction method for the coefficient of steady frequency characteristics based on Grey system GGM（1,1） model. Based on analyzing and comparing the definition and formulation of steady frequency characteristics, identification method and Grey system theory, the constructing method of Grey model is proposed which is suitable for the prediction of power system steady frequency characteristics coefficient. By replacing the time data sequence with the equal measurement data sequence, the Grey system GGM（1,1） model is established with the maximum frequency deviation value under the same operation mode and increasing disturbance to predict and analyze the variation trend of coefficient of steady frequency characteristics. The calculation of K value for a certain operation manner of UHV power grid is done by using the model of GGM （1,1） of grey system. The calculation result is verified and its error within the simulation examples is also analyzed.
出处
《电力系统保护与控制》
EI
CSCD
北大核心
2012年第6期97-103,共7页
Power System Protection and Control
关键词
电力系统
静态频率特性系数
灰色预测
power system
coefficient of static frequency characteristics
grey system forecast
