摘要
针对北京地区持续干旱、水资源短缺问题,基于1470～2010年历史旱涝等级资料,采用滑动t检验、小波分析、均生函数等方法分析了长期干旱的变化趋势、突变特征和周期性规律,并对未来的干旱趋势进行预测。结果表明,近500多年北京地区总体偏旱,17、20世纪干旱最为严重,出现了6个显著的大尺度旱涝突变,未来30年的干旱强度将逐步减弱并向涝转变。
In order to investigate the problems of long term drought and water resources shortage in Beijing region, based on the historical data from 1470 to 2010, this paper analyzes the long term drought trend, sudden change features and periodicity by using moving t-test, wavelet analysis and mean generating function method. And then it predicts the drought trend in the future. The results show that Beijing is partial drought in the last 500 years especially in 17th and 20th centuries; there are six significant large-scale drought/flood sudden change points; in the next three decades, it＇ll still be partial drought in this area; however, the drought strength will be weakened and the flood trend is clear.
出处
《水电能源科学》
北大核心
2012年第3期1-4,共4页
Water Resources and Power
基金
国家自然科学基金资助重点项目(40830637)
国家重点基础研究发展计划(973计划)基金资助项目(2010CB951100)
关键词
干旱
演变规律
趋势
周期
预测
北京
drought
evolution laws
trend
periodicity
prediction
Beijing
