摘要
文章对银行信贷与房地产价格之间的互动关系进行了完整的作用机制分析,并使用更细致和精确的数据建立VAR模型进行了实证研究。研究发现,银行信贷扩张与房地产价格上涨具有明显的相互推动和加强的作用。具体而言,房地产开发商贷款和个人购房贷款对房价都具有显著的正向影响,同时对来自房价冲击的响应也都是正向的。并且,在房价持续高速上升时期,房地产贷款规模对房价的影响力明显超过贷款利率。
This paper thoroughly analyzes the relationship between bank credit and real estate prices, and uses more detailed and precise data to create a VAR model to carry out an empirical analysis. The conclusion of this paper is that there is a significant mutual promoting and reinforcing relationship between the expansion of bank credit and the rise of real estate prices. On the one hand, the expansion of the scale of real estate loans significantly pushes up real estate prices. On the other hand, real estate prices have a positive effect on real estate loans, and -the impulse re- sponse of real estate development loans and individual housing loans to real estate prices are both positive. When the growth rate of real estate prices is high, the influence of the scale of hank credit on real estate prices is greater than that of interest rates.
出处
《经济社会体制比较》
CSSCI
北大核心
2012年第2期188-202,共15页
Comparative Economic & Social Systems
