摘要
通过收集整理千河流域1470-2009年旱涝灾害资料,结合滑动平均、累积距平,以及小波变换处理等方法,分析了千河流域近540 a来旱涝灾害变化规律。研究结果表明:千河流域旱涝灾害交替频繁,具有明显阶段性与周期性规律。通过11 a滑动平均和累积距平分析,可以将千河流域历史旱涝灾害分为3个阶段,在此基础上,又可分为7个明显的偏旱或偏涝时期。另外,由小波分析得出,千河流域近540 a来的旱涝灾害具有明显的周期变化,并且与太阳活动周期有着密切的联系。而且千河流域历史旱涝灾害的发生与我国西北地区,尤其是关中地区旱涝灾害发生规律具有明显的相关性。这对了解千河流域旱涝灾害发生规律和制订防灾减灾措施等具有重要的现实意义。
Drought and flood disaster is one of the most natural disasters in China, and it posed serious threat to the life and wealth of people, and the social sustainable development. Therefore, there is an important implication for the scientific research of the drought and flood disaster. To the drought and flood disaster itself, although its occur- rence with sudden, it is still a certain regularity with a number of data and research results. Therefore, there are many important methods of the research of the drought and flood by the analysis of historical data, among of them, reconstruction analysis for long time series which is a comparable efficient method to research the drought and flood disaster can find the regulation of development of the drought and flood disaster. Recently, some scientist had re- searched the Jing River, Malian River, Fen River, and Urumqi River with the reconstruction analysis for long time series, and gained lots of success. However, there have been no people researched and analyzed the Qianhe basin which is the branch of the Wei River. Collecting and classifying the data about drought and flood disasters in Qian- he basin from 1470 to 2009, and using methods of moving average, accumulative anomaly and wavelet analysis, the change law of drought and flood disasters in the recent 540 years was analyzed, the results showed that the drought and flood disaster happened frequently in the Qianhe basin from 1470 to 2009, and had obvious features of phasic rule and periodic law, which was close correlation with the the drought and flood disaster in the northwest of China, especially Guanzhong plain. The study was very important to realize change law and draw prevention measures of drought and flood disaster in Qianhe basin. According to the results of 11-years moving average and accumulative a- nomaly, it is concluded that the drought and flood disaster of Qianhe basin could be divided into three stages. From 1470 to 1640, the drought and the flood disaster were both seriously; from 1640 to 1880, they were comparable balance ; from 1880 to 2009, the flood took place frequently. At the basis of three stages, we could further divide them into seven drought-partial or flood-partial periods. In addition, by wavelet analysis, it was found that the 540 years＇ drought and flood disaster of Qianhe basin changed obviously in law, and associated with the action of the sun closely. And the drought and flood disaster for the Qianhe basin had obvious relevance in Northwest China, es- pecially in drought and flood disasters in the Guanzhong area. The all results of the research have important practi- cal significance for the development of disaster prevention and mitigation measures of the Qianhe basin.
出处
《干旱区地理》
CSCD
北大核心
2012年第1期133-138,共6页
Arid Land Geography
基金
国家自然基金项目(41030637和40771018)
中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金资助(GK200901007)资助
关键词
千河流域
旱涝灾害
变化规律
Qianhe Basin
drought and flood disasters
change law
