摘要
利用黄河源区有关水文、气象台站观测资料,分析了黄河源区年平均流量变化与气候条件的响应关系,发现气温、降水及蒸发的波动变化对流量有很大影响,依此关系建立了流量预估模型;并根据气候模式输出数据经降尺度处理生成的未来气候情景,对未来源区流量进行了预估。结果表明:近49a间,源区气温呈波动上升态势;蒸发量显著增大,年均降水量没有出现明显的趋势性变化,但具有明显的年际和年代际振荡。源区流量的变化与降水量、气温及蒸发的变化之间存在显著的线性关系,近49a年来,由于气温的持续上升导致径流蒸散发损耗超过降水量的补给作用,源区流量总体呈减少趋势,但近几年随着降水量的增加而有所回升。未来两个时期(2020s、2050s)源区年平均流量为593.61m3/s和525.11m3/s,较气候标准期(1961年-1990年)分别减少14.9%和24.7%,据此,未来气候变化对黄河源区水资源的影响可能弊大于利,但仍具有较大不确定性。
Sensibility of the runoff to climate change in the headwater regions of Yellow River was analyzed based on the measured data from the hydrological and weather stations in the regionsfrom 1961 to 2009. On the basis of high correlation between runoff and climatic factors, a prediction model of the runoff was established, and in terms of future climate scenarios provided by means of the down - scaling climate model, the runoff under medi- um emission scenarios were predicted. The results indicated that variations of temperatures in the reeions hadbeen oscillating with arising trend in the 49a, evaporation increased significantly and annual precipitation showed no apparent trend change, but had the obvious interannual and interdecadal oscillations. There was a remarkable linear correlativity between runoff and precipitation and temperature in the regions. The runoff has decreased continually because of the temperature rising resulting runoff evaporation loss more than precipitation rechargerole. But in recent years the precipitation increased to bounce back. Results showed that the crease 14.9% and 24.7% in the 2020s and 2050s compared with the baseline specified Therefore, damages of the effects of climate change on runoff in the headwater regions of the Yellow River generally outweigh the potential benefits, but with large uncertainty in the predictions.
出处
《干旱区资源与环境》
CSSCI
CSCD
北大核心
2012年第4期97-101,共5页
Journal of Arid Land Resources and Environment
基金
中国气象局气候变化专项"黄河流域气候变化评估报告"资助
关键词
气候变化
流量
影响
趋势预估
climate change
runoff
impacts
prediction
