摘要
"与主要工业化国家经济摩擦加剧、资产价格飙升",21世纪前10年的中国经济表现与20世纪80年代的日本经济表现有着惊人的相似之处。在现有文献的基础上,本文较为系统地比较分析了今日中国与20世纪80年代日本的经济社会发展状况,发现中日两国相似的经济表象背后存在着显著的结构性差异。国际政治、经济形势突变,国内宏观政策失误都有可能导致泡沫形成、甚至破裂,这并不可怕,问题的关键在于一个大国经济体是否具备了实现持久稳定发展的结构性要件。与经济增速和经济总量的快速变化相比,实现政治、社会和经济结构的现代化应是一件更为紧迫的事情。在这个意义上,"中国是否会重蹈日本覆辙"即使不是一个伪命题,至少也是极具误导性的。
Over the past decade, the friction between China and major industrialized countries is escalating, and the price for assets is soaring. China＇ s economic performance over the past 10 years is of great similarity with that of Japan in the 1980s. On the basis of current documents and materials, this paper systematically compared the situation of economic and social development between China today and Japan in the 1980s, and discovered the structural differences of the two economies despite the similar economic performance. With the rapid changes of situations in global economy and society, failures in domestic macro policies will probably result in bubble, which would even burst. The key to this issue is that whether a power is able to fulfill structural ^-n- ditions for realizing enduring stability and development. Compared with economic growth and rapid changes of aggregate econom3 it＇ s a much more urgent task for us to realize the modernization of structure in politics, society and economy. Even the opinion that China would react the tragedy occurred in Japan cannot be defined as totally wrong, it＇s extremely misleading in this sense.
出处
《经济学家》
CSSCI
北大核心
2012年第4期95-104,共10页
Economist
基金
教育部"新世纪优秀人才支持计划"资助
关键词
中日经济表象
结构性差异
经济泡沫
Sino -Japanese economic surfaces
Structural differences
Economic bubbles
