摘要
以22周太阳活动低年(1993-1995)质子事件及其对应活动区的综合分析结果为判据,预报23周太阳活动上升阶段的质子事件.从1997年11月开始到1998年12月,用该方法预报的质子事件共6个,报准3个,不确定一个,虚报1个,漏报1个(太阳背面产生的事件).本文对用该方法预报的结果进行了分析讨论,并与世界警报中心的预报结果进行了比对,结果表明,该方法对于质子事件的短期预报是有效的.
Six proton events are predicted in the ascending phase of Solar Cycle 23 (1997.111998.12), based on the results of a correlation analysis between the proton events and active regions in the descending phase of Solar Cycle 22 (1993-1995). Of the 6 events, 3 were predicted correctly, 1 was a false prediction, 1 was missed (event on the far side of the solar surface) and the last one has an uncertain status. The predictions of RWC-Beijing and WWA are compared and the result shows that the method of prediction used by us is very effective for the short-term prediction of proton events.
基金
中国科学院九五重大项目
天文委员会资助