破解“特里芬”难题——主权信用货币充当国际储备的稳定性被引量：28

Fighting Against “Triffin Dilemma”——The Stability of the Credit-Based National Currencies as International Reserve Currencies

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摘要主权信用货币是否注定充当国际储备货币面临两难,尚缺乏严格的理论与实证。本文的贡献在于,证明了在现代国际货币体系下,主权信用货币充当国际储备保持稳定性的条件是国际储备货币发行国实际经济增长率大于或者等于通货膨胀率与国际储备货币收益率之和。以美元为例的实证研究表明,在布雷顿森林体系与现代国际货币体系下,美元国际储备长时间偏离保持稳定性的可持续水平,这为布雷顿森林体系的崩溃提供了新的解释,当前的美元困境也得到了经验验证。对此,我国必须深入研究美元主导的巨额外汇储备资产安全性问题,同时构建保持国际储备货币稳定性的政策机制。 This paper focused on the relationship between the evolution of the international monetary system and the stability of the credit-based national currencies as international reserve currencies.And we found some important results.Firstly,we found,in the bretton woods system,that the growth rate of the gold reserve and the yield of the dollar were main factors influencing the stability of the dollar reserve asset and the problem of triffin dilemma.Secondly,we found,in the current international monetary system,that the real economic growth rate and the inflation rate and the yield of the dollar were important factors affecting the stability of the credit-based national currencies as international reserve currencies.Finally,we drew the conclusions from the empirical study that the collapsing of the bretton woods system as result of the dollar reserve crisis could not be averted.When it comes to the stability of the dollar reserve asset in current international monetary system,we found that United States had not adapted to the sustainable condition and the stability of the dollar reserve asset could not be guaranteed.Lastly,we analyzed the measure in order to maintain the stability of the reserve.

作者陈建奇

机构地区中共中央党校国际战略研究所

出处《经济研究》 CSSCI 北大核心 2012年第4期113-123,共11页 Economic Research Journal

关键词主权信用货币国际货币体系国际储备资产 “特里芬”难题 Credit-Based National Currency International Reserve Asset Triffin Dilemma

分类号 F832.6 [经济管理—金融学]

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