摘要
从应力释放角度研究断层相互作用，采用合应力描述已发震断层对相邻活断层稳定性的影响。研究认为，合应力为正的地区，未来发震的可能性增大；反之，发震的可能性减小。对华北地区１９６６～１９７７年发生的１４次６级以上地震进行了预测效能检验，结果表明，合应力为正值的地区与后继强震的相关达７５％。将研究结果应用于华北地区，给出了该地区２００５年前可能发生强震的危险区，为中长期地震预报提供依据。
The interaction between neighbouring active faults is studied from the angle of stress release. Adopting resultant stress expresses the effects of source faults on the potential faults. Further material failure is more likely to occur in the regions of positive values of resultant stress, whereas the potentially active faults located in the regions of negative values of resultant stress should become more stable after the source faulting. Forecast efficiency is inspected for 14 earthquakes of M ≥ 6 occurred in the North China from 1966 to 1977, the result indicates that the correlation of positive resultant stress and the successive strong earthquake is 75%. The research result is applied in the North China, further possible failure areas are presented. It can provide evidence for the intermediate and long term prediction.
出处
《地壳形变与地震》
CSCD
2000年第2期43-49,共7页
Crustal Deformation and Earthquake
基金
中国地震局"九五"重点项目!95-04-07-02-02
