摘要
在观察数据基础上,描述出生人口性别比周期性波动现象,并对其内在机理做出解释。研究发现,出生人口性别比的周期性波动是一个普遍规律,其波动周期与生育间隔相关。正常情况下,周期成分对出生人口性别比的变化影响较小并且稳定。中国出生人口性别比的周期成分明显大于其他国家,这与中国强烈的性别偏好有关。周期成分不是影响中国出生人口性别比的主要因素,性别选择行为是出生人口性别比失衡的主要原因。在实际工作中应该尊重出生人口性别比周期性波动的客观规律,关注出生人口性别比的中长期变化趋势。中国出生人口性别比的"拐点"已经出现,在继续加强综合治理工作的条件下,出生人口性别比将进入下降过程。
Based on data analysis, this paper described the cyclical fluctuation phenomenon of sex ratio at birth, and discussed its inherent mechanism. This study found that the cyclical fluctuation of the sex ratio at birth is a universal law, and the fluctuation cycle depends on the birth interval. Under normal circumstances, the cycle composition does not have a great influence on sex ratio at birth and remains stable. Cycle composition of China＇s sex ratio at birth is significantly greater than that of the other countries because of the strong gender preference in China. In other words, it was not the cyclical fluctuations, but the sex selection behavior that affects the sex ratio at birth in China. In practice, we should work in accordance with the objective laws of cyclical fluctuations of sex ratio at birth, and pay more attention to the long - term trend of sex ratio at birth. In recent years, the turning point of sex ratio at birth in China has emerged, and the sex ratio at birth will fall into a downward process if the work is continued.
出处
《人口学刊》
CSSCI
北大核心
2012年第3期3-11,共9页
Population Journal
基金
国家自然科学基金项目:未来我国人口和家庭规模与结构趋势多方案测算分析(71141011)
关键词
出生人口性别比
波动周期
生育间隔
sex ratio at birth, fluctuations cycle, birth interval
