生物质能对化石能源的替代性——基于中国工业部门的实证分析被引量：7

Substitution of Biomass Energy for Fossil Energy:Empirical Analysis Based on Industry Sector in China

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摘要选取1987—2009年中国工业部门能源需求的时间序列数据,利用修正的AES模型和MES模型,实证研究了中国工业部门中生物质能对化石能源的内部替代问题。结果显示:中国对生物质能的需求量会随其自价格弹性的降低而增加;传统化石能源(石油、煤炭)的价格和需求量的同向变化表明,不能依靠价格诱导降低其需求,但价格诱导可促进生物质能对石油和煤炭等传统化石能源的替代。据此得出:中国的石油和煤炭两类化石能源呈现出"吉芬物品"或"低档物品"的特性,作为可再生能源之一的生物质能则表现出"正常物品"的特性;生物质能是传统化石能源的有效替代品。 Using the data about China＇s industry sector from 1987 to 2009,this paper analyzes empirically the internal substitution of biomass energy for fossil energy in China＇s industry sector by modified AES model and MES model.The results show as follows：China′s demand for biomass energy will increase with the decrease of own-price of biomass energy;there is a positive correlation between the price and the demand of traditional fossil energy（petroleum and coal）,which means that price-induce could not promote to reduce consumption effecctively,but could promote the substitution of biomass energy for traditional fossil energy.Therefore,petroleum and coal in China show the characteristic of Giffen goods or inferior goods,while biomass energy,as one of renewable energy,presents the characteristic of normal goods,and biomass energy is an effective substitution for traditional fossil energy.

作者赵新刚刘平阔

机构地区华北电力大学经济与管理学院

出处《技术经济》 CSSCI 2012年第4期52-60,共9页 Journal of Technology Economics

基金北京市优秀人才培养资助项目"新形势下北京能源安全预测模型与预警机制研究"(PYZZ090424001081) 教育部人文社会科学规划基金项目"基于低碳发展的中国生物质发电产业发展政策框架设计研究"(11YJA790218)

关键词能源替代生物质能化石能源能源安全 substitution of energy biomass energy fossil energy energy safety

分类号 F426.2 [经济管理—产业经济] F224 [经济管理—国民经济]

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