摘要
电力变压器是电网中最为关键的电力设备之一。通过对变压器健康水平进行实时监控、风险评估,可以对变压器实施状态检修。在对电力变压器结构组件和风险因素分析的基础上,研究变压器风险评估模型的建立和评判方法。对电力变压器的硬件结构划分层次,将各组件按照性能分为若干状态量,建立变压器风险因素集和影响列表。针对不同数据得到的不同方法、不同专家的不同评估意见,将精确数学评判模糊化,提出了赋予权重的基于模糊数学的变压器风险多级模糊综合评判方法。通过Delphi专家评议法,确定各风险因素的重要程度系数和向量。采用加权平均模型,对多层次模糊算法进行改进。最后通过算例分析验证了该模型的有效性。
Power transformer is one of the most important electrical equipment. Reasnnable condition-based maintenance of power transformers can be carried out by real-time monitoring and risk assessment. Under the analysis of struc, ture and risk factors of power transformer components, how Io establish and evaluate the risk assessment model of power transformers are investigated. Making hierarchical division of power transformers structure, and using stale factors to describe the performance of various components of transformers, risk factors set and impact list of power transformers are established. Based on different methods for different data and different evaluations of different experts, precise mathematical evaluation method is replaced by fuzzy zero-one method, and then weighted, muhilevcl and synthesis risk assessment method of transformer on the basis of fuzzy mathematics is introduced. The Delphi expert appraisal method determines importance coefficients and coefficients vector of each risk factors. The weighted average model improves the muhilevel fuzzy algorithm. Example analysis validates the model at last.
出处
《陕西电力》
2012年第4期25-29,48,共6页
Shanxi Electric Power
基金
中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金资助(201120702020019)
关键词
变压器
风险评估
状态检修
模糊数学
power transformers
risk assessment
condition-based maintenance
fuzzy mathematics
