摘要
用动态可靠性方法弥补传统事件树/故障树方法的不足,补充和完善现有核电厂的可靠性与安全性评估,已成为核电厂概率安全研究的一新发展点。近30年来,动态可靠性已具有相对成熟的理论基础———概率动力学,并形成了蒙特卡罗(MC)模拟和离散动态事件树(DDET)两类主要方法。本文简要介绍动态可靠性理论和方法的研究现状与技术特点,并对未来趋势进行分析。
Dynamic reliability method can make up the shortage of traditional Event Tree/Fault Tree method.It can be used to complete the current reliability and safety assessment methods of nuclear power plants.In recent 30 years,a relatively perfect theory foundation（probabilistic dynamics） has been developed.On this basis,Monte Carlo simulation and discrete dynamic event tree were formed.The research situation and technical characteristics of the dynamic reliability theory and method were introduced.And the future trend of dynamic reliability was also discussed.
出处
《原子能科学技术》
EI
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2012年第4期472-479,共8页
Atomic Energy Science and Technology
关键词
动态可靠性
概率动力学
蒙特卡罗模拟
离散动态事件树
dynamic reliability
probabilistic dynamics
Monte Carlo simulation
discrete dynamic event tree
