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使用数学模型对中国接种水痘减毒活疫苗效果的预测 被引量：8

The Prediction of Effectiveness of Varicella Attenuated Live Vaccine Immunization in China by Mathematical Model
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摘要 目的建立中国(未包括香港、澳门特别行政区和台湾地区)水痘减毒活疫苗(Varicella Attenuated Live Vaccine,VarV)接种的流行病数学模型,对中国接种VarV的效果进行预测。方法在中国人口年龄结构的基础上,采用偏微分方程描述水痘的传播和水痘病例的发病趋势。模拟接种一剂、两剂VarV及开展强化免疫活动的流行病学效果。结果模型预测在接种VarV后,水痘发病数下降。增加接种剂次,可以使控制水痘疫情的时间缩短,并减少突破病例的发病数。结论接种VarV可有效预防水痘疫情。 Objective Based on the mathematical model of varicella attenuated live vaccine immunization in China, to predict the effect of the different immunization strategy. Method Based on the age structure of Chinese population, the epidemiological effect of different varicella immunization strategy was simulated by the model. Result The model shows that varieella incidence can be decreased dramatically after immunization, and the periond of epidemic can be shorten or less. The break-through cases will be decreased as well. Conclusion The varicella can be prevented by the varicella attenuated live vaccine effevtively in China.
作者 殷大鹏 高青林
机构地区 中国疾病预防控制中心免疫规划中心 North Central College.Naperville.IL
出处 《中国疫苗和免疫》 CAS 2012年第2期97-100,143,共5页 Chinese Journal of Vaccines and Immunization
关键词 水痘减毒活疫苗 数学模型 效果 预测 Varicella attenuated live vaccine Mathematical model Effectiveness Predication
分类号 R511.5 [医药卫生—内科学] R186 [医药卫生—流行病学]
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参考文献12

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同被引文献87

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中国疫苗和免疫
2012年 第2期

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