升值背景下人民币汇率、FDI与经济增长动态时变效应研究被引量：20

A Dynamic Time-varying Effect Research on RMB Exchange Rate,FDI and Economic Growth under the Background of Appreciation

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摘要本文运用Pesaran边限协整检验方法系统地研究了升值背景下人民币汇率、FDI与经济增长之间的动态时变效应。研究发现,人民币汇率、FDI与经济增长在样本期内存在显著的长期均衡关系,人民币升值和经济增长均对FDI的流入具有明显的促进作用。而经济增长与FDI的流入对人民币汇率的反馈机制并不存在,FDI流入对于经济增长的促进作用也不明显,表现出强烈的以"投机套利"为主要目的的"本土特征"模式。且同期的向量误差修正分析同样表明,人民币汇率和经济增长能够有效促进FDI流入,而经济增长和FDI流入对于人民币汇率变动的反馈机制依然不存在。这意味着政府当局在保持经济适度规模增长的同时,尤其需要保持审慎的态度制定适当的政策保持汇率稳定,以避免人民币升值过快而导致外资迅速流入进行投机套利活动。 This paper used Pesaran bounds test method to study the dynamic time-varying effect among the RMB exchange rate,FDI and economic growth.It finds that the RMB exchange rate,FDI and economic growth have significant long-term equilibrium relationship during the sample period of memory,and the RMB appreciation and economic growth has obvious role in promoting FDI inflow.But the feedback mechanism of economic growth and FDI inflow on RMB exchange rate does not exist,and the promotive effect of FDI inflow on economic growth is not obvious,and it shows a strong 'Local features' as the main purpose of the 'Speculation arbitrage'.And the corresponding vector error correction analysis also shows that the RMB exchange rate and economic growth can effectively promote the inflow of FDI,while the feedback mechanism of economic growth and FDI inflows on the change of RMB exchange rate still does not exist.This means that the government especially need to maintain a prudent attitude to formulate appropriate policies to keep the stability of exchange rate of RMB while maintaining moderate economic growth,in order to avoid the speculative arbitrage activities caused by rapid foreign capital inflows which initiated from excessive RMB appreciation.

作者潘锡泉郭福春

机构地区浙江金融职业学院金融系

出处《世界经济研究》 CSSCI 北大核心 2012年第6期24-29,87-88,共6页 World Economy Studies

基金浙江省金融学会课题资助

关键词人民币汇率外商直接投资经济增长动态时变效应

分类号 F224 [经济管理—国民经济] F832.6 [经济管理—金融学] F124 [经济管理—世界经济]

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