摘要
为研究土地利用空间变化趋势,找出系列变化与其驱动因子间的关系,该文以海南昌化江下游流域为研究区域,采用CA-Markov模型,基于1998年、2008年土地利用解译数据,结合降雨、坡度、距离等因素对2018年土地利用类型进行了模拟和预测。并模拟出2009年预测数据与解译数据进行对比,得到模拟精度为77.67%,说明模型可信度较高。进一步分析了天然地类(河流、天然林)的转出与人均GDP、人均农业产值和人口数量3个地类变化驱动因子之间的关系。结果显示,天然林和河流面积主要转出变为了果园。从与变化驱动因子的关系上看,河流转出面积随着人均GDP的升高而增大,天然林在分布上主要在低人均GDP水平的地区转出;人口在20～47万规模的地区河流与天然林面积转出最多,因此,需要加强这些地区的天然资源的保护措施,改变发展模式,保护和利用好该地区的生态环境资源,该文的研究可为生态保护与资源优化配置提供决策的依据。
In order to study land use change trend and find out the series relationships between driving factors, taking the Changhua downstream watershed in Hainan province as the study area, the land use scenario in 2018 was simulated and forecasted on the basis of land use types interpretation of 1998 and 2008, rainfall, slope and range of distance data by means of CA-Markov model. Results showed that the simulation accuracy by this model attained 77.67%, and most area of forest and rivers were transformed into orchards. The change of rivers was in accord with real GDP per capita increasing or decreasing. Most area of forest＇s transformation occurred in places of real GDP per capita with low level. Area of forest and rivers with population of 200 000 to 470 000 was mainly transformed. Therefore, protective measures for natural resources and reasonable regional development mode should be taken to reserve natural resources better. This study provides a policy basis for ecological protection and optimization of resources allocation.
出处
《农业工程学报》
EI
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2012年第10期231-238,I0007,共9页
Transactions of the Chinese Society of Agricultural Engineering
基金
中科院百人计划项目和科技部973项目"中国陆地生态系统碳源汇特征及其全球意义"(2010CB950603)
海南省教育厅研究生创新科研课题(项目编号:Hys2011-13)
关键词
土地利用
元胞自动机
模型
趋势分析
驱动因子分析
昌化江下游流域
land use, cellular automata, models, trend analysis, driving factors analysis, Changhua downstream watershed
