摘要
根据呼伦湖流域1961—2010年的气温、降水、蒸发量资料以及1961—2008年径流量资料,利用非参数检验Mann-Kendall法,分析了近50年呼伦湖流域气候变化特征及其对流域径流量的影响。结果表明:呼伦湖流域近50年来气温整体呈显著上升趋势;年降水量受夏季降水量影响最为明显,经历了1961—1964年的上升,1964—1983年的下降,1983—2003年的上升和2003—2010年下降4个阶段;年蒸发量在1973年以前相对平稳,1973—1998年呈下降趋势,1999—2005年呈显著上升趋势,2005年为突变点,出现从高到低突变。夏、秋季节蒸发量趋势在时间段上与夏季降水量有很好的对应关系;径流量基本表现为1961—1965年偏丰,1965—1987年偏枯,其中1975—1980年间表现为显著下降趋势(P<0.05),1987—2002年偏丰,2002—2008年偏枯;在气温普遍升高的前提下,降水量整体呈减少趋势,其变化趋势在很大程度上决定蒸发量的变化,呼伦湖流域暖干化趋势显著。以径流自身的变化特征为时段划分基础,对比径流、气温、降水量和蒸发量的变化过程,经相关统计分析检验,发现夏、秋季气温、降水量和蒸发量是引起呼伦湖流域径流量变化的根本原因。
By using Mann-Kendall non-parametric test, this paper analyzed the climate changes and their effects on the runoff in Hulun Lake basin in recent 50 years, based on the air tempera- ture, precipitation, and evaporation data from 1961 to 2010 and the runoff data from 1961 to 2008. In the study area, the air temperature in 1961-2010 had an obvious increasing trend, the annual precipitation was greatly affected by summer precipitation and experienced four stages, i. e. , increased in 1961-1964 and 1983-2003 and decreased in 1964-1983 and 2003-2010, and the annual evaporation retained a relatively stable state before 1973, had a decreasing trend in 1973- 1998 and an increasing trend in 1999-2005, and then decreased, with an abrupt change point in 2005. The evaporation in summer and autumn corresponded well with the precip- itation in summer. The runoff was plentiful in 1961-1965 and 1987-2002, but scarce in 1965- 1987 and 2002-2008, with a significant decrease in 1975 to 1980. With the increase of air tem- perature, precipitation presented an overall decreasing trend, which determined the evaporation change to a great degree, and thus, the Hunlun Lake basin appeared a warming and drying tend- ency. On the basis of the runoff variation characteristics, a comparison was made on the change processes of the runoff, air temperature, precipitation, and evaporation. Correlation analysis indicated that the air temperature, precipitation, and evaporation in summer and autumn were the primary causes of the runoff variation in the Hunlun Lake basin.
出处
《生态学杂志》
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2012年第6期1517-1524,共8页
Chinese Journal of Ecology
基金
国家自然科学基金项目(40865005
41165005)
国家科技部基础性项目(2007FY210100)资助
关键词
气候变化
径流量
响应特征
呼伦湖流域
climate change
runoff
response characteristics
Hunlun Lake basin.
