摘要
通过模拟预测2010-2053年中国农村人口、财政收入、新农保覆盖率、最低标准基础养老金以及最低缴费标准等数据,对中央、地方财政对新农保的年补助数额分别占中央、地方财政收入的比重做出仿真测算。发现总体来看,2010-2053年间,只要中国经济能够实现持续稳定增长,中央和地方财政都可以负担得起新农保的财政补助。根据可持续性评估,文章提出了相应的政策建议。
According to simulating and predicting the data of Chinese rural population,fiscal revenue,new rural social endowment insurance coverage,minimum basic pension standard and minimum payment standard from 2010 to 2053,we estimate the proportions of annual central or local financial subsidy amount to new rural social endowment insurance in central or local fiscal revenue,and find that overall,in the years 2010 to 2053,as long as Chinese economy can achieve sustainable and stable growth,the central and local finance can afford the subsidies of new rural social endowment insurance.According to the sustainability assessment,this paper presents corresponding policy recommendations.
出处
《中国软科学》
CSSCI
北大核心
2012年第5期68-79,共12页
China Soft Science
基金
教育部哲学社会科学研究重大课题攻关项目"新型农村社会养老保险制度研究"(09JZD0027)
教育部人文社会科学重点研究基地重大项目"社会保障风险管理研究"(2009JJD630008)
国家社会科学基金青年项目"新型农村社会养老保险制度的可持续性评估研究"(11CSH067)
关键词
新农保
财政保障能力
可持续性
人口预测
new rural social endowment insurance
financial security capacity
sustainability
population forecast
