摘要
自然灾害综合风险评估是当前灾害研究领域的主要难点之一。以经济发达、灾害频繁的长三角地区为研究区,选取县级行政区域为基本分析单元,以人类生命体作为受灾对象,尝试进行了区域多灾种综合风险度分析。致灾因子方面选取地震、台风、洪水;选择性别比例、年龄结构、交通状况、通信设施和医疗状况等构建脆弱性评价指标,以人口密度作为承灾体暴露性指标。以历史上各致灾因子造成的年均死亡人数为权重依据,将各致灾因子进行加和得到多致灾因子的危险度指数;使用熵值法对脆弱性的各相关指标进行分析计算,得出脆弱性指数。将得到的多致灾因子危险度指数、承灾体脆弱性指数和暴露性指数合并,得出各县的人类生命多灾种综合风险度指数。结果表明:高风险度地区主要分布在上海市中心区域、台州市的南部。所得风险度指数反映了长三角区域内各县区人口受到多灾种综合影响的相对强度。
Multi-risk assessment is one of the major difficulties in natural hazards research area. In this paper, the multi-risk of natural hazards to human life was assessed at county level in the Yangtze River Delta area, where is densely populated and economically developed, and highly prone to natural hazards. Three types of hazards inclu- ding earthquakes, typhoons and floods were mainly focused. The multi-hazard index is the sum of each hazard fac- tor multiplied by its weight, which is calculated according to the historical yearly average death caused by this haz- ard. Gender ratio, age structure, traffic condition, telecommunication facilities and medical condition were selected to establish the vulnerability index with the help of entropy method, and the exposure index was represented by the population density. Then, the multi-risk of natural hazards to human life was calculated by aggregating the multi- hazard index, the vulnerability index and the exposure index. In the end, the multi-risk map of natural hazards to human life was obtained. Multi-risk index indicates the total risk of multi-hazard to the human life in counties of theYangtze River Delta. The results show that central Shanghai, north Taizhou and southwest Hangzhou are high risky areas.
出处
《自然灾害学报》
CSCD
北大核心
2012年第3期56-63,共8页
Journal of Natural Disasters
基金
国家"十一五"科技支撑计划课题(2008BAK50B07)
教育部-国家外国专家局高等学校创新引智(B08008)
关键词
自然灾害
多致灾因子
生命体风险
长三角地区
natural disaster
multi-hazard
risk to human life
Yangtze River Delta region
