摘要
研究目的:概率积分法是矿山沉陷预计的最主要方法,一直以来其模型本身的缺陷和修正方法是研究的重点,由于岩层移动形式的复杂性无法在理论计算中反应,模型本身的缺陷未得到过有效的修正。特别是在铁路下伏采空区的高精度变形预计中,会对计算结果造成较大的影响。研究结论:通过深入分析概率积分原理和总结已有的经验,结合随机介质理论的特点提出一种新的概率分布模型——不均匀概率分布模型,分析了概率分布模型与主要影响半径r的关系,随着采深的增加,r值会呈现分段的负指数函数变化。以概率积分计算参数和工作面剖分方法为切入点,针对倾斜煤层倾角大的赋存特点,提出沿走向方向剖分工作面可有效地修正概率积分模型偏于理想化的缺陷,实例计算证明这种方法有效地提高了铁路下伏采空区变形预计的精度,对于铁路选线、设计和采空区处理均具有积极的指导作用。
Research purposes： The probability integral method is one of the most main methods for prediction of the mine subsidence, and its defect and the modification method are emphatically studied for a long time. Because the complexity of the stratum moving form is unable to be shown in theoretical computations, the defects of the model have not been effectively corrected. The defect can specially influence the calculation results in prediction of the high precision deformation of the railway - underlying goal. Research conclusions： Through analysing the principle of probobility integral deeply and summing up the experience, a new kind of probability distribution model （the asymmetric possibility distribution model） is presented according to the characteristics of the random medium theory. The relation between the probability distribution model and major influence radius r is analyzed. With the increase of the mining depth, the variation of the negative exponential function by section occurs to the r value. Taking the calculation parameters of the probability integral and the face subdivision method as breakthrough point, and according to the occurrence characteristics of large inclination of inclined coal seam, it is put forward that subdivising the face along its strike can effectively correct the idealized defects of the probability integral model. The calculation example proves that this method can effectively improve the accuracy of the deformation prediction for railway - underlying goal. It plays a positive guiding role in the railway alignment, railway design and goal disposal.
出处
《铁道工程学报》
EI
北大核心
2012年第6期24-27,共4页
Journal of Railway Engineering Society
关键词
概率积分
模型修正
铁路
采空区
变形预计
probability integral
model modification
railway
goal
deformation prediction
