摘要
为研究和预测北京市门头沟地区生态安全形势，并在实践中为生态安全评价提供理论依据，在生态环境管理的方法论基础上，根据统计年鉴，采用压力状态响应模型建立生态安全指标体系，以不安全指数法对指标实际值归一化，运用层次分析法确定指标权重，采用加权指数法计算生态安全综合值，评价了门头沟区3年的生态安全状况。结果表明：门头沟地区2006-2008年3年期间，生态安全综合指数分别为：0．6192、0．6393、0．6395。显示生态安全综合值缓慢上升，生态安全越来越好。但是仍然处于较不安全状态。指出其主要原因有经济欠发达、自然资源缺乏、人口众多等。建议该地区加快产业结构调整、改变增长方式、控制人口、提高土地利用率，保护环境并治理污染。
Researching and predicting the ecological security at Mentougou district of Beijing were a practice to provide a theoretical basis for ecological security evaluation and methodological foundation for environmental management. According to statistical yearbooks, the ecological security status at Mentougou district in the period between 2006 and 2008 was evaluated by pressure-state-response （PSR） model. Through insecurity index method to standardise the obtained data and analytic hierarchy process （AHP） to estimate the weight of indicators, the ecological security values were calculated by weighted index method. The results showed that comprehensive indices of the ecological security of those three years were 0.6192, 0.6393 and 0.6395, respectively, indicating a gradually improving but still comparatively insecure state. Main influencing factors of such a situation may include low level of local economic development, shortage of natural resources, overpopulation, and etc. It was proposed that the local government should speed up the adjustment of industrial structure, alter the mode of growth, control the population, improve the land use, protect environment and control pollution.
出处
《上海环境科学》
CAS
CSCD
2012年第3期116-121,127,共7页
Shanghai Environmental Sciences
基金
“十二五”国家科技支撑计划项目,编号:2011BAD38B05
关键词
生态安全
门头沟
评估
趋势预测
压力状态响应模型
Ecological security Mentougou district Assessment Trend prediction Perssure-state-response （PSR） model
