摘要
研究一以时间距离和封面故事为变量考察对认知相关性的影响,结果发现时间距离、封面故事及二者间的交互作用显著。坏封面故事中,人们对1年后发生的事件要比1周、5年与50年后事件的认知相关程度都高,即最重视;好封面故事中,4个时间距离间的认知相关程度差异不显著。研究二在1周、1年、5年和50年四个时间距离下,探讨封面故事、框架和概率对风险偏好的影响,结果表明:仅当时间距离为1周时,不同概率在坏封面故事中风险倾向的差异显著。同时,大概率下,封面故事、封面故事与框架的交互作用对风险偏好的影响达到显著水平,表现出在坏封面故事中,与负面框架相比,正面框架下风险回避的比例更高,符合框架效应。结合研究一、二发现框架效应正发生在认知相关程度最低时。
When making choices, people are sensitive to the way in which the problem is presented. This sensitivity was well exemplified.by the framing effect initially described by Tversky and Kahneman （1984）. In the well-known ＂Asian disease problem ＂, they found that the majority were risk averse when the options of the problem were framed positively, yet turned to be risk seeking when the options were framed negatively. The first study was to investigate 625 Chinese college students＇ cognitive relativity in different temporal distances and cover stories. The results of the questionnaire survey showed the main effect of temporal distances and cover stories were both significant, and the effect of interaction was also significant. It showed the greatest cognitive relativity when the temporal distance was 1 year under the bad cover story. The second study used scenarios that were similar to the Asian disease problem to research how the characteristics of the cover stories framing effects and probability levels influence risk preference in different temporal distances. In order to examine whether temporal distances （1 week, 1 year, 5 year and 50 year）, the characteristics of the cover stories （good vs. bad） and the probability of outcomes （high vs. median vs. low） would affect people＇s risk preference, the scenarios were designed to begin with four different temporal distances, therefore, there was a four 2 （the cover story： good vs. bad） x 3 （probabilities： high vs. median vs. low） x 2 （outcome framing： positive v s. negative） mixed designs with probabilities as the within participants variable and the other three factors as between participants variables. McNemar test and logistic regression were performed for the analysis. The results were as follows： （1） When temporal distance was 1 week, under bad cover story, the difference among three probabilities were significant in the number of pursuing sick; when the probability was 95%, the main effect of cover story and the effect of interaction between cover story and outcome framing were significant; （2） Framing effect was found only on high probabilities level under bad cover story when temporal distance was 1 week.
出处
《心理学报》
CSSCI
CSCD
北大核心
2012年第7期957-963,共7页
Acta Psychologica Sinica
基金
国家自然科学基金资助项目(项目批准号:70872105)
关键词
时间距离
封面故事
概率
框架效应
风险偏好
temporal distances
cover story
the probability of outcomes
framing effect
risk preference
