摘要
目的利用1998--2007年中国肿瘤登记地区人群肝癌发病数据对肝癌发病趋势进行分析，并对2008--2015年中国肝癌发病情况进行预测。方法选取全国肿瘤登记中心1998—2007年肝癌发病数据，共115417例，覆盖人口446734668人年。分年度计算性别、地区别肝癌发病率，并根据世界标准人口年龄构成计算标化发病率。利用JoinPoint软件对发病趋势进行分析，计算年度变化率（APC值）；利用年龄-时期-队列的贝叶斯模型对肝癌发病趋势进行拟合，并预测2008—2015年我国肝癌发病情况。结果1998-2007年中国肿瘤登记地区人群肝癌发病率为25．84／10万（115417／446734668），标化发病率为18．82／10万。城市男性肝癌发病率为34．30／10万（58353／170131309），标化发病率为24．99／10万；女性发病率为12．33／10万（20324／164830893），标化发病率为7．99／10万；农村男性发病率为48．56／10万（27378／56377236），标化发病率为42．27／10万，女性发病率为16．90／10万（9362／55395230），标化发病率为13．52／10万。10年间，城市男性肝癌发病率和标化发病率APC值分别为1．1％和-0．5％；城市地区女性肝癌发病率APC值为-0．5％，标化发病率APC值为-1．9％；农村男性肝癌发病率和标化发病率APC值分别为3．7％和1．9％，女性肝癌发病率和标化发病率APC值分别为3．1％和1．3％。贝叶斯模型预测，2015年城市男性肝癌发病率为30．73／10万（113279例），女性为10．44／10万（35978例）；男性和女性标化发病率分别为23．70／10万和7．21／10万；农村男性发病率为51．67／10万（182382例），标化发病率为39．80／10万，女性发病率和标化发病率分别为15．03／10万（49580例）和10．45／10万。结论2008-2015年中国肝癌发病率呈缓慢上升趋势，标化发病率略有下降，新发病例数在今后一段时间内仍会继续升高。肝癌仍将是恶性肿瘤防控的重点之一。
Objective Based on the cancer registry data during 1998 -2007, to analyze the incidence of liver cancer in China and predict the trend of incidence of liver cancer between 2008 and 2015. Methods Liver cancer incidence data from cancer registry between 1998 and 2007 was collected, including a total of 115 417 cases, covering 446 734 668 person-year. We calculated the annual incidence rate of liver cancer by gender and area. Age-standardized rate （ ASR ） was calculated by the world＇ s population age structure. JoinPoint software was applied to analyze the incidence trend and calculate annual percent change （APC）. Age-Period-Cohort Bayesian Model was used to fit the incidence trend and predict the incidence trend between 2008 and 2015. Results From 1998 to 2007, according to the data from cancer registry, the liver cancer incidence was 25.84/100 000 （115 417/446 734 668 ）, with the ASR at 18.82/100 000. In urban areas, the male incidence was 34. 30/100 000 （58 353/170 131 309）, with ASR at 24.99/100 000 ; while the female incidence was 12. 33/100 0130 （ 20 324/164 830 893 ） , with ASR at 7.99/100 000. In rural areas, the male incidence was 48. 56/100 000 （27 378/56 377 236）, with ASR at 42. 27/100 000; while the female incidence was 16. 90/100 000 （9362/55 395 230）, with ASR at 13.52/100 000. During the decade, in urban areas, the APC of male and female liver cancer incidence rates were separately 1.1% and -0. 5% , with ASR at -0. 5% and - 1.9% ; while in rural areas, the APC of male and female liver cancer incidence rates were separately 3.7% and 3.1% , with ASR at 1.9% and 1.3%. Age-Period-Cohort Bayesian Model predicted that in urban areas, the male and female incidence of liver cancer in 2015 would reach 30. 73/100 000 （ 113 279 cases） and 10.44/100 000 （35 978 cases）, with ASR at 23.70/100 000 and 7.21/100 000, respectively; while in rural areas, the incidence rates would increase to 51.67/100 000 （ 182 382 cases） and 15.03/100 000 （49 580 cases）, with ASR at 39. 80/100 000 and 10. 45/100 000, respectively. Conclusion The incidence of liver cancer will increase between 2008 and 2015, but its ASR will decrease slightly. In the near future, the number of new liver cancer cases will keep increasing. Liver cancer is still the dominant cancer and one key point for cancer prevention and control in China.
出处
《中华预防医学杂志》
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2012年第7期587-592,共6页
Chinese Journal of Preventive Medicine
基金
辉瑞公司资助
关键词
肝肿瘤
发病率
贝叶斯定理
预测
Liver neoplasms
Incidence
Bayes theorem
Forecasting
