摘要
根据民勤县历史粮食产量数据,采用GM(1,1)预测模型,用MATLAB软件实现了GM(1,1)预测算法并进行了精度检验,预测了2011-2015年各年民勤县的粮食产量,以及2011-2019、2020-2028、2029-2037年这3个阶段的民勤县粮食产量均值。预测结果表明,未来几年民勤粮食产量逐渐增加,但增幅不大,增产潜力低。而发展草地农业能"藏粮于草",保证粮食安全,又能治理民勤生态环境恶化,还能调整粮经饲比例。因此,加速草地农业的发展是促进民勤可持续发展的必备条件。本研究的结果可为政府有关部门宏观规划和决策提供理论依据,促进民勤可持续发展。
Based on the past data of the grain output of the Minqin County in Gansu Province, the GM （1,1） predicting model was operated with the support of the MATLAB software and its accuracy was test- ed in this study, which was used to predict the grain output of the Minqin County for each year from 2011 to 2015 and periods of 2011--2019, 2020--2028 and 2029--2037. The predictive results of model showed that the grain output of the Minqin County increased in the next few years, but its increase rate was not much, indicating that the growth potential of grain output was low. This study proposed that the develop- ment of grassland agriculture made sure food security and improved the worsening ecological environment in the Minqin County by adjusting the proportion of grain crop, cash crop and grass, implying that speed- ing up the development of grassland agriculture was a necessary prerequisite to sustainable development of Minqin County, which could be used to provide theoretical basis for policy-maker to grassland agriculture was a necessary prerequisite to sustainable development of Minqin County, which could be used to provide theoretical basis for policy-maker to present the development plans of Minqin County.
出处
《草业科学》
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2012年第7期1163-1169,共7页
Pratacultural Science
基金
国家重点基础研究发展计划(973项目)课题(2007CB108902)
