摘要
通过计量分析研究了产业结构变动和经济波动的关系,然后利用方差分解的方法分析了三次产业变动对经济波动的影响。通过研究得出:产业结构变动是经济波动的一个重要原因,产业结构合理化和高级化都有助于缓解经济波动,但产业结构高级化比产业结构合理化对经济波动的影响大;从三次产业的变动来看,农业对于稳定经济的作用也在减弱,制造业目前仍然是经济波动的主要原因,发展服务业有利于经济的稳定发展。
Study the changes between industrial structure and economic fluctuations through Theoretical Economet- rics, and then use the variance decomposition analysis of changes in the three industries of economic fluctuations. The stud- ies show：changes in industrial structure is an important reason for the fluctuations in the economy, the rationalize and mod- ernization of the industrial structure help to alleviate the economic fluctuations, but modernization of the industrial structure than the rationalize of industrial structure on economic fluctuations. From changes in the three industries, the role of agri- culture for stabilizing the economy also weakened, manufacturing is still the main reason for fluctuations in the economy, the development of the service sector is conducive to stable economic growth
出处
《经济与管理研究》
CSSCI
北大核心
2012年第7期29-37,共9页
Research on Economics and Management
基金
国家社科基金重点项目"以全球价值链引导我国经济结构转型升级"(11AZD002)
关键词
产业结构波动
经济波动
方差分解
Industrial Structure Change
Economic Fluctuations
Variance Decomposition
