摘要
本文重点分析成乐高速公路沿线大雾历年变化特征,分别用指标判断法和非线性统计支持向量机SVM方法,对成乐路沿线各站大雾的有无定性和能见度量级做出短期和短临客观预报模型,最后通过人为经验订正,对沿线各站大雾做出精细化客观预报;其次,作为新方法的探讨,用中尺度wrf模式对2008年一次典型连续强浓雾天气作了数值模拟试验,试验结果良好,但是该方法的业务化应用有一定难度,还有待进一步研究。
By using index judging and nonlinear statistical SVM methods, the changing characteristics of heavy fog along the Chengdu - Leshan express way is studied in this paper. Furthermore, the prediction of heavy fog possibility and the visibili- ty level in short prediction and now - casting prediction models is formed. With experience revising the last results of the mod- el, the final refined objective weather heavy fog forecasting will be gotten. Using WRF numerical model, the simulation of a typical lasting heavy fog weather process in 2008 has done, the experiment results show that this method is good for the heavy fog prediction. In addition, the method is difficult for operational work, there are more researches are needed.
出处
《高原山地气象研究》
2012年第2期70-76,共7页
Plateau and Mountain Meteorology Research
关键词
大雾
精细化
客观预报
数值模拟试验
heavy fog, visibility, refined objective weather forecasting, numerical model simulation
