摘要
基于金融稳定的国际储备合宜规模与结构是目前国内外学界的研究热点,目前普遍认为中国的外汇储备总量已经明显过度,但对其黄金储备规模如何适度却莫衷一是。通过构建一个包含黄金储备、金融不稳定、跨境资本流动以及实体经济变量的系统分析框架,采用理论模型和实证方法探讨影响新兴市场经济体黄金储备的相关因素,继而模拟中国适度黄金储备规模的综合研究结果表明,金融不稳定程度的提高将会直接导致黄金储备占比的显著上升;国际储备对抵御经济金融危机的作用是有限度的,外汇与黄金储备之间不存在简单的替代关系;中国货币当局应在缩减外汇储备规模的同时,逐步增加黄金储备量并将其维持在3000吨左右,继而通过合理优化国际储备结构以确保国内金融稳定。
The appropriate scale and structure of international reserves based on the financial stability is a research focus at home and abroad.It is generally believed that the totality of China’s foreign exchange reserve has been excessive.This thesis constructs an analytical framework including gold reserves,financial instability, cross-border capital flows and variables of real economy,and consequently uses theoretical models and empirical methods to explore which factors are relevant to gold reserves in emerging market economies and measure the scale of China’s necessary gold reserves.This comprehensive research has some findings:a relative higher level of financial instability will directly result in a significant increased proportion of gold reserves;the ability of international reserves to withstand economic and financial crisis is limited;foreign exchange reserves and gold reserves are not simply alternative to each other.China monetary authorities should reduce the scale of foreign exchange reserves and simultaneously increase the scale of gold reserves so as to keep more than 3000 tons.In addition,the structure of the international reserves should be optimized to ensure domestic financial stability.
出处
《华东师范大学学报（哲学社会科学版）》
CSSCI
北大核心
2012年第4期123-131,156,共9页
Journal of East China Normal University（Humanities and Social Sciences）
基金
国家自然科学基金项目(70873041)
教育部人文社科规划后期项目(11JHQ032)
2011年上海市教委科研创新项目(11ZS42)的阶段性研究成果
关键词
黄金储备
金融不稳定
外汇储备
跨境资本流动
实体经济
gold reserves,financial instability,foreign exchange reserves,cross-border capital flows,real economy
