摘要
作为短期投机资本的国际热钱是导致历次金融危机的主要元凶之一。无论是墨西哥金融危机还是亚洲金融危机都给世界人民敲响了热钱扰害经济的警钟。由于热钱的隐蔽性和流动性往往很难把握其来龙去脉,给各国监管当局造成很大的困难。中国经济的稳定快速发展使人们担忧热钱会搅动中国经济健康发展的局面。文章首先就热钱对经济可能产生的影响进行理论分析,然后利用计量经济模型分析了影响热钱进入中国的因素以及由此给我国的相关经济变量所造成的影响,并针对热钱带来的负面影响提出趋利避害的应对建议。
As a short-term speculative capital, international hot money is one major culprit of previous financial crisis. Whether Mexico financial crisis or Asian financial crisis, it has alarmed people that the hot money harass economic in the whole world. As a result of the hot money＂ s concealment and mobility, it is often caused great difficulty for the national regulatory authorities to master its trace. The stability of China＇ s rapid economic development makes people worry about hot money will stir the healthy development of China＇ s economic situation. In this paper, firstly, I will analyze the possible influence of hot money on economy theoretically. Then by using econometric model to analyze the influencing factors of hot money move into China and the impact thus it gives to our related economic variables Finally I will put forward countermeasures to draw on the advantages and avoid disadvantages of the hot money.
出处
《科学决策》
2012年第7期38-56,共19页
Scientific Decision Making
关键词
国际热钱
汇率利率
VAR模型
international hot money
foreign exchange rates and interest rates
VAR model
