摘要
目的预测南宁市乙肝发病趋势,为制定针对性的预防控制措施提供依据。方法根据南宁市2004-2010年乙肝的发病率建立灰色预测GM(1,1)模型并进行外推5年预测。结果南宁市乙肝发病率(/10万)的灰色预测模型为:0.107(1)534.34472.29tteY。拟合检验显示本模型拟合精度合格(C=0.494,P=0.857),精度等级为2级,能够较好地预测乙肝发病趋势。预测结果显示,2011-2015年南宁市乙肝年发病率分别为114.68/10万,127.62/10万,142.04/10万,158.07/10万,175.93/10万。结论未来几年南宁市乙肝发病率仍然呈现上升趋势。
Objective To predict the incidence trend of viral hepatitis B in Nanning. Methods Based on the incidence data of viral hepatitis B in Nanning from 2004 to 2010, the grey systemic GM （1, 1） forecast model was established. And the model was used to predict the trend of viral hepatitis B for the year of 2011-2015. Results The grey systemic forecast model was Y（r＋1）=534.34e～-472.29. The goodness-of-fit test indicated that the precision （degree 2） was qualified （C =0.494, P =0.857） and the grey model was capable of forecasting incidence trend of viral hepatitis B. The model predicted that the incidence rates of viral hepatitis B would be 114.68, 127.62, 142.04, 158.07, 175.93 per 100 000 respectively for the year of 2011-2015. Conclusion The model suggested the upward trend of the disease incidence in the near future years.
出处
《疾病监测与控制》
2012年第8期467-468,共2页
Journal of Diseases Monitor and Control
关键词
乙肝
GM(1
1)预测
发病趋势
Viral hepatitis B
Grey systemic GM （1, 1） model
Incidence trend
