摘要
利用1961-2010年黑龙江省28个站点逐日气象资料,应用Mann-Kendall突变检测和线性趋势系数方法分析作物生长季(5-9月)农业气候资源的变化特征,并运用降水集中度和集中期对降水条件进行分析。结果表明,研究区近50a来日照时数平均每10a减少8.8h,稳定突变点在1980年;农业热量资源显著增加,平均气温增加趋势极显著(P<0.01),最低气温升高是增温的主要贡献者,作物生长季气温突变点在1996年,比全年平均气温突变点晚了10a左右,≥10℃积温和积温日数增加也极显著(P<0.01),但积温的初、终日年际间变化较大;农业水资源减少,总降水量平均每10a减少4mm,降水量级越大,降水分配的不均匀性越突出,中雨以下降水日数显著减少(P<0.01),而大雨和暴雨降水日数增加,平均增速分别为0.5和0.45d.10a-1;降水集中期在7月下旬,且降水量级越大,其集中度越大,大雨和暴雨以上降水的集中度分别为57.7%和68.7%,极端降雨过于集中,不利于被农作物有效利用,且容易出现局地洪涝。
In this paper, the variations of agricultural climate resources during the crop growth season （May to September） are studied by using the daily climatic data of 28 weather stations in Heilongjiang province during 1961 to 2010, with the application of Mann - Kendall mutation detection and trend coefficient analysis. And the precipitation feature especially in time and intensity distribution were analyzed by using precipitation concentration degree （PCD） and precipitation concentration period （PCP） methods. The results showed that in the recent 50 years the sunshine duration had a decreasing tendency, with an average of every 10 years to reduce 8.8 hours, and the stabilizing mutation took place in 1980. Agricultural heat resource increased significantly with the increase of mean temperature （P 〈 0. 01 ）, the minimum temperature increase was the ＇main contributor to the warming. The mean temperature during crop growing season had a mutation in 1996 which had a nearly 10 years delay than that of the annual mean temperature. The accumulated temperature ≥10℃ and the duration of it also increased significantly （ P 〈 0.01 ） , however, the inter-annual change of the starting day and the ending day of accumulated temperature 〉/10~C was large. Agricultural precipitation resource had a decrease tendency, which had a mutation in 1997, with the decrement of average 4. Omm of every 10 years. The inter-annual variation of precipitation distribution was more obvious as the precipitations amount became big. The precipitation days of light rain and moderate rain decreased significantly （ P 〈 0.01 ） , while the days of heavy rain and rainstorm increased, the average growth rate of them were 0. 5 and 0. 45 d per l0 years respectively. The precipitations concentration period （PCP） took place in late July. The precipitations concentrator degree （PCD） increased with the level of rainfall amount, the bigger the PCD. The PCDs of heavy rain and rainstorm were 57.7% and extreme precipitation was unfavorable for crops to utilize and may cause local extreme precipitation was unfavorable for crops to utilize and may cause local flood.
出处
《中国农业气象》
CSCD
北大核心
2012年第3期340-347,共8页
Chinese Journal of Agrometeorology
基金
黑龙江省自然科学基金(G200925)
关键词
黑龙江省
作物生长季
气候资源
变化特征
线性趋势
M-K检验
Heilongjiang province
Crop growth season
Climate resource
Characteristics change
Linearity trend
Mann - Kendall test
