摘要
基于1988年、1998年、2008年陆路交通网络数据,借助GIS软件,分析了1980年代以来珠三角地区交通网络通达性空间格局的变化,并采用GAM模型,定量分析了1980～2009年期间陆路交通网络与人口变化之间的关系。结果表明:研究时段内,公路交通通达性空间格局以穗-莞-深一线为最高,向外围逐渐递减;铁路交通通达性空间格局以广佛地区为中心向外围逐渐递减;陆路交通网络发展主要受公路网络的影响,铁路在整个交通网络中所起的作用较弱;各阶段通达性提高幅度差异较大,存在递减效应,第一阶段(1988～1998年)通达性提高较第二阶段(1998～2008年)更为显著;公路交通、铁路交通与人口变化关系具有差异性,公路交通对人口变化的作用显著,三个时段内其对人口变化的解释贡献率分别为11.56%、48.07%、44.92%,铁路与人口变化的关系较为薄弱,但在1990年以后,随着铁路网络扩展以及铁路运输服务水平的提高,其与人口变化的关系逐步增强。
Based on the road and railway network data of 1988, 1998 and 2008 in the Pearl River Delta, supported by the GIS software, this paper examines the spatial structure and evolution of major cities accessibility in this region, and quantitatively analyzes the rela- tionship between road and railway accessibility and population change using GAM models. The results are shown as follows. During the study periods, road accessibility of Guang- zhou-Dongguan-Shenzhen line is the highest, gradually decreasing from the center to the surroundings. However, the spatial structure of railway accessibility has changed little, Guangzhou-Foshan areas are the center with the highest accessibility, and the accessibility decreases from the center to the surroundings. Evolution of land transport network in the Pearl River Delta is mainly affected by road network, and rail transport network plays a minor role in land network. There are great differences of accessibility improvement in the two research stages that demonstrate diminishing effects, and the accessibility improve- ment in the first stage （1988-1998） is more outstanding than that in the second stage （1998-2008）. The relationship between road-railway traffic and population change is dif- ferent, and roads have significant effect on population change, with its contribution rate with population change being 11.56%, 48.07%, and 44. 92% in the three periods, respectively. The relationship between railway and population change was weak, but after 1990, with the railway network expanded and the standard of railway transport service im- proved, its relationship with population change has gradually strengthened.
出处
《地理研究》
CSSCI
CSCD
北大核心
2012年第9期1661-1672,共12页
Geographical Research
基金
国家自然科学基金资助项目(41171139
41130747)
