摘要
在全球经济复苏脚步放慢、国内经济环境日趋复杂的形势下,分析我国宏观经济的驱动因素、判别宏观经济变量之间内在联系的重要性凸显。本文基于我国2001年1月-2011年12月的宏观经济金融月度数据,通过构建向量自回归模型,从内生影响的信贷投放、货币供应、资产价格等角度出发,利用脉冲响应函数和方差分解方法研究我国经济增长和物价水平的影响因素及各变量对经济增长和物价水平的贡献程度。实证结果表明,信贷渠道、货币渠道、资产价格渠道对经济增长和物价水平都会产生影响,但资产价格对我国宏观经济的影响越来越重要,当局可以考虑未来把资产价格作为货币政策的中介工具,合理调控资产价格,降低通货膨胀预期,促进我国经济平稳健康向前发展。
Global economic recovery slows down and domestic economic environment is becoming increasingly complicated. Under this situation, it＇s more and more important to analysis the macroeconomic driving factors and to find the inner link between macro economic variables. Based on monthly macro economic data such as the supply of credit,money supply, and assets price from January 2001 to December 2011, this paper builds the vector regression model. With the help of pulse corresponding function and variance decomposition method, it researches the influence factors of economic growth and the price level of China and analyzes the contribution degree of driving factors on economic growth and the price level. Empirical results show that credit channel, currency channel, asset price channel would all affect economic growth and the price level, but asset prices play a more and more important role to macro economy of China, so the authorities could consider the asset prices as It can control asset prices reasonable, lower in a steady and healthy speed. a intermediary tools of monetary policy in the future. inflation expectations, and promote economic growth in a steady and healthy speed.
出处
《财贸经济》
CSSCI
北大核心
2012年第9期70-75,共6页
Finance & Trade Economics
基金
教育部人文社会科学研究项目"贫困农户小额信贷融资风险度量及控制研究"(12YJC790178)的支持
关键词
货币政策
资产价格
经济增长
通货膨胀
Monetary Policy, Asset Price, Economic Growth, Inflation
