基于成本粘性的盈利预测及其精度检验被引量：23

The Earnings Forecasting Model Based on Cost Stickiness and It's Forecast Accuracy Test

导出

摘要本文以2007-2009年沪深2652家A股上市公司为样本,验证了成本粘性的存在性,并以2008年的相关财务数据为基础构建盈利预测模型,对2009年的公司盈利进行预测,通过与当年各公司的实际利润相比较,发现基于成本粘性的盈利预测模型具有更高的预测能力,其预测精度显著高于其他常用预测模型,表明将诸如成本习性等管理会计的工具引入财务会计研究领域具有重大意义,可以提高会计信息的决策相关性。 The paper starts from testifying the existence of cost stickiness using 2652 observations of listed companies＇ data in 2007-2009. Then we estimate the parameters of all our four forecast models using samples in the period in 2008, through which we obtain ROE forecasts for 2009. By comparing the actual and forecasted ROE, we find that our CS model provides substantial improvement in forecast accuracy over the other three models that use only line items in the financial statements. The substantial forecast accuracy improvement CS model also points to the rich potential of decision-making relevance increasing for future research integrating heretofore disparate streams of work in managerial and financial accounting.

作者苏文兵李心合段治翔

机构地区南京大学会计与财务研究院国家外汇管理局中央外汇业务中心

出处《数理统计与管理》 CSSCI 北大核心 2012年第5期930-940,共11页 Journal of Applied Statistics and Management

基金国家自然科学基金项目(70572049)

关键词成本粘性盈利预测预测精度 cost stickiness, earnings forecast, forecast accuracy

分类号 O212 [理学—概率论与数理统计]

引文网络
相关文献

参考文献40

1Ball R, Brown P. An empirical evaluation of accounting income numbers [J]. Journal of Accounting Research Autumn, 1968, (6): 159-178.
2Noreen E, Soderstrom N. The accuracy of proportional cost models: Evidence from hospital service departments [J]. Review of Accounting Study, 1997, 2(1): 89-114.
3Anderson M C, Banker R D, Janakiraman S N. Are selling, general, and administrative costs "sticky"? [J]. Journal of Accounting Research, 1997, 41(1): 47-63.
4Banker R D, Chen L T. Predicting earnings using a model based on cost variability and cost stickiness [J]. The accounting review, 2006, 81(2): 285-307.
5Banker R D, and Johnston H H. An empirical study of cost drivers in the U.S. airline industry [J]. The Accounting Review, 1993, 68(3): 576-601.
6Subramaniam C, Weidenmier M L. Additional evidence on the sticky behavior of costs [R] . Working Paper. Texas Christian University, 2003 (Februaryl0).
7Balakrishnan R, Peterson M, Soderstrom N. Does capacity utilization affect the stickiness of costs? [J]. Account, Audit and Finance, 2004, 19(3): 283-299.
8Balakrishnan R, 8z Gruca T S. Cost stickiness and core competency: A note [J]. Contemporary Accounting Research, 2008, 25(4): 993-1006.
9Calleja K, Steliaros M E, Thomas D C. A note on cost stickiness: Some international comparisons [J]. Management Accounting Research, 2006, 17(1): 127-140.
10Weiss D. Cost behavior and analysts' earnings forecasts [J]. Accounting Review, 2010, 85(4): 1441- 1471.