摘要
在考虑高速铁路短期客流周期性和波动性的基础上,提出和建立反映短期客流时空变化特征的改进重力模型,探讨回归分析和季节指数相结合的客流预测方法。通过实例研究,采用最小二乘法对模型进行参数标定,在此基础上预测未来年的月度客流量。实证表明,采用改进重力模型进行短期客流预测具有较好的适用性。
Grounded on the consideration of periodicity and volatility of short-period passenger flow of high-speed railway, the updated gravity model reflecting time-space changing characteristics of short-time passenger flow is proposed and built, and the passenger flow prediction method with the combination of regression analysis and season index is approached. Through casestudy, Least square method is adopted to calibrate parameters, and based on which, monthly volume of passenger flow in the coming year is predicted. The case study shows that predicting short-period passenger flow by using updated gravity model has a good applicability.
出处
《铁道运输与经济》
北大核心
2012年第9期29-33,共5页
Railway Transport and Economy
关键词
高速铁路
短期客流
重力模型
回归分析
季节指数
High-speed Railway
Short-period Passenger Flow
Gravity Model
Regression Analysis
Season Index
