摘要
在仔细分析大气环流背景、物理量场、实况资料以及数值预报产品检验的基础上,总结了2011年4月15日石家庄市区一次气温预报失误的经验教训:此次气温预报失败,主要是对地面高压移动位置预报出现偏差,东风影响的时间比预期偏晚,未能考虑西风造成的"焚风"效应。分析中还发现,在地面气温预报中,除注意高空系统及850 hPa变温外,对垂直运动也应着重考虑;西风分量大小的变化与气温的升降趋势一致;地面东风开始时间与地面气温由高到低的转折时间一致;T639 10 m风场数值预报产品具有一定的准确度,为今后类似情况下的气温预报提供了一定的参考。
Based on careful analysis of the atmospheric circulation background, physical quantity field, real time data and numerical prediction product inspection, we summed up lessons from a tempera ture forecast mistake of Shijiazhuang urban district on April 15, 2011. Failure of the temperature forecast is mainly attributed to the surface high movement forecast deviation, later affecting by east wind than pre dicted and lack of consideration of the ＂Foehn＂ effect caused by westerly winds. In addition to paying at tention to highaltitude system and the 850 hPa temperature various, vertical movement should also be taken into consideration in surface temperature forecast. Diversification of westerly wind component is in good consistency with that of temperature. The starting time of surface east wind is as same as the transi tion time of surface temperature from high to low. Wind field numerical forecasting product at the altitude of 10 m in T639 has a certain degree of accuracy. It will provide a reference for the temperature predic tion under similar circumstances in the future.
出处
《气象与环境科学》
2012年第B09期19-23,共5页
Meteorological and Environmental Sciences
基金
河北省科技计划项目(12237126D-1)
城市气象科学研究基金项目(UMRF200905)资助
关键词
气温
西风
垂直运动
预报
temperature
west wind
vertical motion
prediction
