摘要
电网公司售电量是具有"逐年增长趋势"的离散型随机变量,用传统的平均年增长率计算的指数预测模型,因"增长过快"而易偏离该地区的电源供给能力.文中提出了带有电源供给能力约束条件的回归函数筛选及其综合方法,并由此建立了电网公司售电量的多项式回归预测模型及其检验方法.最后通过一个实例,具体介绍了这一方法的应用.
The Power Grid Corporation electricity sales is a discrete random variables which is growth trend year by year, the calculation method of the traditional index prediction model by the average annual growth rate is easily deviate the region＇s power supply capacity because ＂growing too fast＂. This paper proposes screening of the regression functions and their integrated approach with that have the constraints condition, And thus established the power company＇s electricity sales polynomial regression forecasting model and test methods. Finally, the specific application of this method is introduced by an example.
出处
《数学的实践与认识》
CSCD
北大核心
2012年第18期76-81,共6页
Mathematics in Practice and Theory
关键词
多项式回归分析
售电量预测
综合
检验
polynomial regression analysis
electricity sales forecast
comprehensive
exam-ination
