摘要
采用自2005年1月至2011年6月的PMI与相应时期的GDP累积增速的数据,在对制造业PMI领先于GDP走势3～12个月的论断进行检验的基础上,构建了GDP累计增速数据与月份PMI数据之间的模型,以期能更加准确的发现PMI与GDP之间的关系,结果表明:制造业PMI领先于GDP 4个月对GDP的走势具有最好的预测作用.
Based on the inspection of the manufacturing PMI 3-12 months ahead of the GDP trend from the data of Manufacturing PMI and GDP from January 2005 to June 2011 ,we have constructed a quantitative model on the months data of the Manufacturing PMI and the accumulated growth data of the GDP in order to find the relationship between the PMI and GDP more accurately, the results show that manufacturing PMI ahead of GDP for 4 months has the best predictive effect on GDP trend.
出处
《中南民族大学学报（自然科学版）》
CAS
2012年第3期131-134,共4页
Journal of South-Central University for Nationalities：Natural Science Edition
基金
湖北省统计科研计划重点资助项目(HB111-07)
