摘要
本文首先采用永续盘存法对我国各省份资本存量进行了估算。基于估算结果,分析了资本重心的空间移动轨迹,发现轨迹以1991年和2003年为转折点分成了三个阶段。为分析资本重心迁移的主导因素,本文发现第一阶段重心持续向东北方向移动的主要原因是东部的资本快速积累。第二阶段重心向东南方向移动是由东部地区仍然保持快速积累和西部地区积累滞后引起的。第三阶段重心向北方移动是西部地区积累滞后和东北地区快速积累所致。最后,分析资本重心迁移与经济重心迁移相背离的原因是资本存量不是影响经济增长的唯一变量,它的变动不一定会带动经济同步变动。
This paper estimates the provincial capital stock in China based on perpet ual inventory method. It analyses the trajectory of capital gravity center according to the estimation result, finding 3 stages exist in the year respectively. As a result, it finds that the reason of the movement of gravity center to northeast in the first stage is the rapid ac cumulation of east capital. The reason to southeast in the second stage is the rapid accu mulation of east capital and the lag of west capital. The reason to north in the third stage is the lag of west capital and the rapid accumulation of northeast capital. Finally, this pa per analyses the reason of the difference between capital gravity center movement and eco nomic gravity center movement, and indicates that variation in capital stock doesn＇t al ways lead to variation in economy synchronously since it isn＇t the only variable of econom ic growth.
出处
《数量经济技术经济研究》
CSSCI
北大核心
2012年第11期68-84,共17页
Journal of Quantitative & Technological Economics
基金
教育部人文社会科学青年基金项目(12YJC790230)
上海市自然科学基金面上项目(12ZR1411300)的资助
关键词
资本存量永续盘存法
资本重心夏普利值
Capital Stock l Perpetual Inventory Method l Capital Gravity Cen-ter
Shapley Value
