摘要
风险区划图不仅是有关部门根据不同灾区特征安排抗旱预防工作的基础,也是保险公司制定适合当地保险产品的依据,但是目前的制作方法多种多样,在同一地区往往采用不同的制作方法,风险的区划结果也不尽相同,因此给决策者带来了一定的困难。采用最常用的层次分析法和较新的灾损率法分别对安徽省小麦旱灾风险进行了评估,并制作了风险区划图。通过欧氏距离法将两幅图与旱灾实际分布情况进行了比较,发现层次分析法因构造判断矩阵时存在主观性,结果偏离实际情况较大,而灾损率法因排除了人为因素的影响,结果更加接近实际情况。
Risk regionalizing maps are not only the basis for relevant government departments to arrange drought disaster prevention works for different disaster affected areas,but also the foundation of insurance companies to develop suitable insurance products for local people.However,different methods produce different risk regionalizing maps in the same area,which has brought about some troubles to decision-makers.In this paper,the wheat drought disaster risks in Anhui Province were assessed using the common analytic hierarchy process and the disaster loss rate respectively,and then the drought risk maps by both methods were drawn.Comparisons between the two groups of maps and the actual distribution of drought by Euclidean distance show that,the result from analytic hierarchy process deviate from the actual situation very much because the construction of judgement matrix is subjective,while the result of disaster loss rate is closer to reality,because it exculdes the influence of many human factors.
出处
《自然灾害学报》
CSCD
北大核心
2012年第5期173-179,共7页
Journal of Natural Disasters
基金
国家自然科学基金项目(41171401)
国家重大科学研究计划(2012CB955402)
科技部国际科技合作项目(2012DFG20710)
关键词
层次分析法
灾损率法
欧氏距离
旱灾风险
风险区划图
analytic hierarchy process
disaster loss rate
Euclidean distance
drought disaster risk
risk zoning map
