摘要
针对基于单模式陆气耦合模型在洪水预报中存在的不确定性问题,利用三种数值天气预报模式MC2、GEM与T213开展基于多模式降水集成的陆气耦合洪水预报研究。通过淮河流域2007～2009年3场暴雨洪水验证表明:基于多模式降水集成的陆气耦合洪水预报可以有效地减小不确定性、提高精度和稳定性;但基于多模式降水集成的陆气耦合洪水预报对小尺度局地强降水仍存在较大的不确定性,今后需对此展开进一步的研究,以给出更加稳定、可靠的洪水预报结果。
In order to meet the requirements for addressing uncertainty problems in flood forecasting on account of single model precipitation forecasting, a coupled atmospheric-hydrological modeling system based on multi-model integrated precipitation forecast- ing has been implemented in a configuration for three episodes of intense precipitation affecting the Wangjiaba sub-region from 2007 to 2009. The encouraging results obtained in this study demonstrate that the coupled system based on multi-model integrated precipitation forecasting has a promising potential of discharge accuracy and stability in terms of amount and timing, along with re- ducing uncertainties in flood forecasts and models. Moreover, the precipitation distribution of numerical weather prediction （NWP） is unsatisfactory in small temporal and spatial scales, even at high resolution, which requests further research on storm-scale data as- similation, sub-grid-scale parameterization of clouds and other small-scale atmospheric dynamics.
出处
《水文》
CSCD
北大核心
2012年第5期1-6,共6页
Journal of China Hydrology
基金
国家自然科学基金(41001012)
全国优秀博士学位论文作者专项资金资助项目(201161)
关键词
陆气耦合
中国洪水预报系统(NFFS)
洪水预报
多模式降水集成预报
coupled atmospheric-hydrological modeling
National Flood Forecasting System（NFFS）
flood forecast
multi-model inte- grated precipitation forecasting
